Marginalium

The uneven effects of AI on the economy. Paywalled so try a paywall remover like archive.ph. Tyler Cowan reflects on AI in the American economy, but seems fairly portable:

Which leads me to a prediction: Companies and institutions in the more fluid and competitive sectors of the economy will face heavy pressure to adopt AI. Those not in such sectors, will not.

So, e.g. programming or design will. Govt, education, and non-profits won’t. Individuals will, institutions won’t.

The most interesting prediction:

As AI-using sectors become cheap, they will be a smaller part of GDP. The remaining parts of GDP will be “AI hesitant,” which in turn will make it harder for AI to keep on boosting GDP growth.

So on this account AI has a peak approaching. Let’s see.